Denial Raffle 2.0

[nina@]

why????????????????

I knew I made a mistake by entering in group B..

edit : you only call it winning.. it seems more like LOSING

[Sam~]

What!!! I can't believe I "won" with just 1 ticket!

I accept the 30 days.....

[nina@]

we get as many tickets as the number of times we post? I thought 1 ticket per entrant!!!

I accept the 75 days

[Sam~]

Originally Posted by nina@

we get as many tickets as the number of times we post? I thought 1 ticket per entrant!!!

I accept the 75 days

Yes, it's one ticket per post (not including comments not adding day's)......

[nina@]

Originally Posted by Samishere

Yes, it's one ticket per post (not including comments not adding day's)......

I just counted.. I added around 14 times (i.e. 52% chance of winning), Asher88 12 times (44% chance of winning), strangerthings 1 time (4%) for group B

So, when I was trying to max the days for asher88, I only increased my chances a hell lot next time I should actually read all the rules when I say I did

[Matt:]

Originally Posted by nina@

I just counted.. I added around 14 times (i.e. 52% chance of winning), Asher88 12 times (44% chance of winning), strangerthings 1 time (4%) for group B

So, when I was trying to max the days for asher88, I only increased my chances a hell lot next time I should actually read all the rules when I say I did

yeah lol It's amazing really that Asher didn't win any of the groups, her 12 tickets went into each group draw. Group C was 12 tickets for Asher vs 2 for BB123, group B as you said, then group A was Lucy 13, Asher 12, JH & Sam 1.... (You were not in Group A draw due to winning group B)

If I was good at maths, I'd work out the probability of that happening lol Has to be VERY low!

[nina@]

you should have drawn group A first, that way if I won that I would have been excluded for Group B!

Edit: Probability is easy, for group C BB123 had 2/14 = 14.28% of winning
for group A, after excluding me, Sam had 1/27 chance of winning (as she had 1 of the 27 tickets total in group A) = 3.7% chance of winning

[Matt:]

Originally Posted by nina@

you should have drawn group A first, that way if I won that I would have been excluded for Group B!

haha It's always drawn that way.

If I'd drawn group A first and Asher had won, there'd only have been BB123 in group C...

I was thinking what was the probability of Asher not winning any group, as was in the draw with 12 tickets for all. (85.72% chance of winning group C, 44% of group B and similar in Group A)

[nina@]

Originally Posted by Matt:

haha It's always drawn that way.

If I'd drawn group A first and Asher had won, there'd only have been BB123 in group C...

wouldn't have changed the outcome for group C as BB anyways won but then again (might have relieved me..lol) that's hindsight bias, as it wasn't likely then.. I need to look at the reduction tasks document!!

[Sain]

Congrats to the winners!

I don’t typically join these, but I seriously considered joining this one just because of the people involved.

[BB123]

I didn’t think that I would win with only 2 tickets but okay aha
I accept my denial time.

[Matt:]

So denial dates are - :

Samishere - until 29th May
Nina@ - until 13th July (possible 25 days reductions)
BB123 - until 1st September (possible 50 days reductions)

[nina@]

Originally Posted by Matt:

So denial dates are - :

Samishere - until 29th May
Nina@ - until 13th July (possible 25 days reductions)
BB123 - until 1st September (possible 50 days reductions)

hmm.. read the rules. do I have to update it in my signature or make a blog etc.. also do I need to pm the reduction tasks to you for approval before trying them

[Matt:]

Originally Posted by nina@

hmm.. read the rules. do I have to update it in my signature or make a blog etc.. also do I need to pm the reduction tasks to you for approval before trying them

Yes, any reduction tasks need to be pm'd to me. And if can put denial in you're signature.

You can get an extra 5 day's reduction (on top) if you keep a blog, updated weekly about you're denial and any reduction tasks you do.

[Wedgiebondagebabe]

Originally Posted by nina@

wouldn't have changed the outcome for group C as BB anyways won but then again (might have relieved me..lol) that's hindsight bias, as it wasn't likely then.. I need to look at the reduction tasks document!!

The reason I have done group c first is because it has the biggest "punishment". To me, going from easiest to hardest doesn't make sense. I cannot think of a way to put it best in words, but that is why I started it that way.