You're sitting in a dingy bar. You drain the dregs of the last alcoholic beverage you can afford for the night. You've got one shiny coin left. You look around for something to spend it on. There's a charity jar at the end of the bar, which you reach out for. But just beyond it you see a big flashing jukebox. You walk over and slot your coin in. Not sure what to choose, you hit RANDOM.
The discs whirr into place, and it comes up...
The discs whirr into place, and it comes up...
Mathematics - Cherry Ghost
Posted 01-27-2009 at 09:10 PM by Hampers
In a recent thread, the probability of a dice dare was discussed. I found myself disagreeing with some of the probabilities other users mentioned, so I thought I'd have an illustrated go myself.
The question is what is the probability of being allowed an orgasm on any given day.
One your first day, you're only allowed an orgasm if you roll a 12. The odds of rolling a 12 are 1/6 (for the first die) times 1/6 (for the second die). This gives us the odds 1/36.
I hope you're with me. If I've already confused you, this might not be the blog for you.
Next, if you roll a 12, you get to roll again to see how you orgasm. The interesting point is that if you roll a six on this second roll, you do not get an orgasm, but do get an increased chance the following day.
So the odds of being allowed an orgasm are now 1/36 x 5/6, as we multiply along the arms of our tree diagram, which is 5/216, or roughly 0.0231481481%
So if we do roll a six, what happens on the next, 'special', day? Well, on a 'special' day, a morning roll of either 2 or 12 takes us to the orgasm section, so the odds are now 1/36 + 1/36 = 2/36.
As both of these can now take us to the orgasm section, the odds of an orgasm on a 'special' day are doubled, i.e. 5/216 + 5/216 = 10/216 = 0.046296296%
This is my proof. If someone can see mistakes in what I've done, please point them out to me and I will gladly eat humble pie. Also let me know if you think it'd be interesting to have a look at the probability of an orgasm over the course of a week or a month, for instance.
Hampers.
The question is what is the probability of being allowed an orgasm on any given day.
One your first day, you're only allowed an orgasm if you roll a 12. The odds of rolling a 12 are 1/6 (for the first die) times 1/6 (for the second die). This gives us the odds 1/36.
I hope you're with me. If I've already confused you, this might not be the blog for you.
Next, if you roll a 12, you get to roll again to see how you orgasm. The interesting point is that if you roll a six on this second roll, you do not get an orgasm, but do get an increased chance the following day.
So the odds of being allowed an orgasm are now 1/36 x 5/6, as we multiply along the arms of our tree diagram, which is 5/216, or roughly 0.0231481481%
So if we do roll a six, what happens on the next, 'special', day? Well, on a 'special' day, a morning roll of either 2 or 12 takes us to the orgasm section, so the odds are now 1/36 + 1/36 = 2/36.
As both of these can now take us to the orgasm section, the odds of an orgasm on a 'special' day are doubled, i.e. 5/216 + 5/216 = 10/216 = 0.046296296%
This is my proof. If someone can see mistakes in what I've done, please point them out to me and I will gladly eat humble pie. Also let me know if you think it'd be interesting to have a look at the probability of an orgasm over the course of a week or a month, for instance.
Hampers.
Total Comments 6
Comments
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You're brilliant!
Are you gonna post recipes for some good old outback cooking next?
Posted 01-28-2009 at 06:37 AM by Zeromus 
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Yes, actually.
Damper: Mix some flour, some water, and a pinch of salt together. Knead if you like. Wrap in al-foil and bake over a fire till cooked inside. Will not rise.
Remove alfoil and wrap the damper around a wallaby.
Serves two: You and ya sheila.Posted 01-28-2009 at 07:25 AM by Hampers
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... I wonder, does cooking count as art?
Posted 01-28-2009 at 08:00 AM by Zeromus
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you are wrong... 5/216 = 0.0231... = 2.31% (!!)
and 10/216 = 0.0462... = 4.62% (!!)
The rest is rightPosted 01-29-2009 at 07:52 PM by Merlin
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Of course!
Stupid me.Posted 01-30-2009 at 06:22 AM by Hampers
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Well done. But you left the most important question unanswered: How long am I expected to be denied release? So, basically, what es the expected value of days until orgasm?
Another interesting question would be how big the probability is that I am allowed to orgasm within the first x days (where x is some number between 2 and 365).
If I find the time, I will try to produce these results, until then it is up to you to try
Posted 05-11-2010 at 07:10 AM by Besh
